Gas-weighted degree days, model delta signals, and spatiotemporal forecasts.
March Natural gas futures are falling Monday as long-range models continue trending warmer for the middle of February. It appeared over the weekend that a major arctic front may move through the lower 48 at some point between Feb 13th and Feb 17th. Models have since erased this event almost entirely and prices are falling. The EIA storage report will …
What is Praevis? A production weather data platform built and operated by a meteorologist. It ingests GFS model data, computes gas-weighted degree days, and tracks model-to-model deltas across the United States. Live and fast weather data. request access and give feedback.
A standard heating or cooling degree day (HDD) treats every location in a region equally. Praevis uses US Census data to develop gas-weighted degree days based on the number of housholds that use natural gas as a heating source.
Our gas-weighted degree days weigh each location's temperature by how much natural gas is actually consumed there. Areas with high gas consumption pull more weight in the calculation. The result is a degree day number that correlates directly with actual demand and not just average temperature across a regio or population.
Praevis computes GWDD (combined), GWHDD (heating season), and GWCDD (cooling season) using GFS model output at high spatial resolution across the continental US.
Weather models don't stay the same. Every six hours, the GFS model updates with new data which can be very deifferent from data earlier in the day. That's why we have a model delta feature to help you track changes and trends in weather and demand forecasts.
Model delta signals track the change in GWDD forecasts from one model run to the next. A large positive delta means the latest model run is colder than the previous one -- a bullish signal for heating demand. A negative delta means the model is trending warmer.
The base forecast provides point and polygon-level temperature and degree day outlooks directly from the latest GFS model run. Select any location or draw a custom region -- a utility service territory, a delivery zone, a sales region -- and get a forecast tailored to that exact geography.
Useful for propane distributors planning delivery schedules, HVAC companies anticipating service demand, or any business whose operations are sensitive to temperature swings.